Two weeks ago, Cringely reported that Google was configuring entire data centers that can fit in a single shipping container, and can be rapidly deployed to major cities and Internet peering points around the world. This prediction or inside info makes sense -- Google's competitive advantage lies in efficiently running the world's largest distributed computing environment, and Google is building on that strength to challenge Microsoft in the desktop applications business, and to challenge the entrenched telcos and cable companies in delivering high-bandwidth media to the home. Buygoogle has reported that these businesses require moving servers to the edge of the network, close to the user, to reduce the latency in serving this content and to minimize the distances that petabytes of data must be transported.
While Cringely's data-center-in-a-box concept seems both innovative and achievable, Cringely's post last week was a little more wild. In this article, Cringely states as fact that Google is developing hundreds of millions of self-contained four-ounce plastic cubes that will be plugged in to every device in people's homes and offices. These "Google Boxes" will bristle with every conceivable connector to allow them to plug into TVs, PCs, telephones and broadband modems, and they'll sport Wi-Fi and Bluetooth to connect with any wireless device within range. Just plug these into every device in your home, they'll recognize each other and develop a spontaneous mesh network in your home, and connect to the Google mothership through any broadband access point they can find.
According to Cringely, Google will give these boxes away just like AOL used to send out CDs, and pretty soon Google will have built a parallel Internet that bypasses the dinosaurs that control media and information delivery today -- the telcos and the cable companies.
Neat idea, it would be really cool if it were true, but there's a lot of magic between today's state of the art and this mythical Google Box. So while Cringely's vision sounds more like 2015 science fiction than a 2005 beta product, there are important observations for the Google investor:
- Google must bypass the dinosaur gatekeepers who have a chokehold on network access and content delivery. The telco and cable gatekeepers charge way too much for last century's technology, and they have every incentive to stifle innovation to maintain their control over what people see and when. They don't see their pipes as a utility like electricity -- they want to use their monopoly to lock users in to their content and phone service as well. Google needs to bypass these guys to drive down costs, unlock innovative services, and boost advertising revenues. They're getting around the gatekeepers by providing free Wi-Fi, buying up huge blocks of dark fiber, and delivering video over the Web.
- Google needs a hardware device in the home. PCs are expensive, complicated and unreliable, and they aren't in most people's living rooms. To extend the Google franchise to the rest of the the world's information ( especially video) will require an idiot-proof device in the living room that works with the TV. Some speculate that this in-home device will be Tivo or an extension of the Google Mini.