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Google & NASA - just office space? - 9/28/2005 02:15:00 PM

There are a number of reports today that Google will sublet 1 million square feet of office space from the Ames Research Center in Mountain View. Makes sense -- it's close to Google's current HQ that they've occupied for 2 years now, and Google's growth has it bursting at the seams.

Eric Schmidt and Ames Director G. Scott Hubbard will have a news conference today at 4:30 PDT for a "major announcement."

Is this really just about office space and real estate? With Ames' focus on machine learning and artificial intelligence, it seems to me that there'd be something more than office space that Ames and Google could collaborate on.

And I'm still holding on to the wild idea that Google might do an end run around the cable firms and telcos to deliver bandwidth directly to people. Maybe Ames' aeronautical research could help develop a Google Broadband Blimp, or perhaps their space systems division could help with a network of low-earth-orbit satellites a la Iridium.

Crazy talk, I know. But it's surprising how much an innovative company can do with with an extra $4 billion. And did you see the twin blimp hangars at Ames?

Update Sept. 28, 5:33 PM: Nope, it's not just about office space. According to NASA's press release, this is about "forming a new research-and-development partnership" -- the office space deal was almost an afterthought in the second paragraph. Here's what they'll be working on:

... large-scale data management, massively distributed computing, bio-info-nano convergence, and encouragement of the entrepreneurial space industry ... supercomputing and data mining ...

This should leave no doubt that Google is all about solving big problems through hard core engineering. What better way to establish an enduring competitive advantage?

No mention of a blimp project, though!

The $100 laptop - 9/28/2005 08:38:49 AM

How will Microsoft be able to charge $150 for Windows and another $300 for Office when laptops can be had for $100? Sounds to me like Google's web applications fit this model much better than Microsoft's fat client strategy.

The device being developed by the MIT Media Lab will be long on connectivity, short on local storage, and aimed at the developing world. The same kind of inexpensive, networked, thin client could work in the industrialized world for the millions of people who just want simple communications and web-based apps - IM, voice chat, search, email, etc.

Here are some of the specifics from the MIT Media Lab's $100 laptop site. And some pictures of the new device are here -- cool!

What is the $100 Laptop, really?
The proposed $100 machine will be a Linux-based, full-color, full-screen laptop that will use innovative power (including wind-up) and will be able to do most everything except store huge amounts of data. These rugged laptops will be WiFi- and cell phone-enabled, and have USB ports galore. Its current specifications are: 500MHz, 1GB, 1 Megapixel.

How is it possible to get the cost so low?
First, by dramatically lowering the cost of the display. The first-generation machine may use a novel, dual-mode LCD display commonly found in inexpensive DVD players, but that can also be used in black and white, in bright sunlight, and at four times the normal resolution—all at a cost of below $30.
Second, we will get the fat out of the systems. Today's laptops have become obese. Two-thirds of their software is used to manage the other third, which mostly does the same functions nine different ways.
Third, we will market the laptops in very large numbers (millions), directly to ministries of education, which can distribute them like textbooks.
What about connectivity? Aren't telecommunications services expensive in the developing world?
When these machines pop out of the box, they will make a mesh network of their own, peer-to-peer. This is something initially developed at MIT and the Media Lab. We are also exploring ways to connect them to the backbone of the Internet at very low cost.

What can a $1000 laptop do that the $100 version can't?
Not much. The plan is for the $100 Laptop to do almost everything. What it will not do is store a massive amount of data.

Thin clients, mesh networks, software as service, and free open source software. It's a Google world.

GWA saves one full day - 9/28/2005 06:48:00 AM

My Google Web Accelerator "hours saved" counter has been rising rapidly the last month or so. Yesterday it hit 23.9 hours, and this morning it flipped over to "1.0 days saved."

I have no way to tell how accurate this is. But if GWA has really saved a 24-hour day since I installed it in May, that's extremely valuable!

Here are my latest stats:

Load Time for 92384 Pages
Without Google Web Accelerator: 34.1 days
With Google Web Accelerator: 33.1 days

Total Time Saved: 1.0 day

And why is this important to the Google investor? Because it's another example of Google's engineering and innovation, which sets Google apart from many of their competitors. It shows Google's potential to change the architecture of the internet, which could allow Google to erect significant competitive entry barriers to new products and services. Awesome.

Hollywood panics over Google TV - 9/27/2005 06:01:19 PM

Today Michael Eisner warned Hollywood executives not to get their knickers in a twist over the imminent revolution in TV from the likes of Google, Yahoo and peer-to-peer networks:

"Don't panic over the latest techno jargon like ... peer-to-peer, wi-max, 80211, bittorrent ... the only thing that gives purpose to all these remarkable delivery systems is the kind of creative content we all produce," Eisner said.

[...]
Eisner said that while technology changes have ushered in new ways of distributing entertainment products, the one constant is that all of those delivery systems have relied on Hollywood creative content to fill their pipelines.

"Over time, the product we produce has been consistently successful here in America and around the world," Eisner said. "Apparently, we are doing something right."

This big difference between this technological change and the last one (VCRs), is that this isn't just about "delivery systems." This one is about who creates the content, who controls how and when the user interacts with it, and how to make money advertising with it.

When your entrenched competitor acknowledges panic, be it Microsoft or ABC, you know you're on the right track.

Google Turns 7 - 9/27/2005 05:56:00 AM

Google was founded seven years ago. You can read the whole story of Google's early days in John Battelle's excellent book, "The Search." Read a couple pages online at Amazon, as well as search the whole book -- if you search for '100,000' and go to page 85, you'll pick up the story of Google's first investor.

Here's an excerpt, but the book is really worth buying:

By late 1998, Google was serving more than 10,000 queries a day, and it was clear to Page and Brin that the service would quickly outgrow their ability to beg resources to support it. Starting a company became the only viable alternative ...

As Page recalls, Brin sent [Andy] Bechtolsheim [cofounder of Sun] an email late one night requesting a sit-down, and Bechtolsheim answered immediately. "We did a demo, and Andy asked a lot of questions. [Then] he said, 'Well, I don't want to waste time. I'm sure it'll help you guys if I just write a check.'"

Page and Brin weren't ready for such an offer, but when Bechtolsheim went out to his car to get his checkbook, they pondered how much to ask for and at what valuation. When Bechtolscheim returned, they told him their suggested valuation. Page picks up the story: "We told him our valuation, and he said, 'Oh, I don't think that's enough, I think it should be twice that much.'"

Brin and Page were stunned, but of course, they agreed, and Bechtolscheim asked who the check should be made out to. The founders hadn't settled on a name, so Bechtolsheim suggested Google Inc., after the service's name. They agreed, and minutes later, Page and Brin had a check for $100,000. If ever there was a reason to incorporate, this was it.

To celebrate, Brin and Page went to Burger King and had breakfast. "We thought we should have something that tasted really good, though it was really unhealthy," Page said. "And it was cheap. It seemed like the right combination of ways to celebrate the funding."

Bill Joy of Sun calls that first $100,000 "One of the most fabulous investments of all time."

The era of the couch potato is so over - 9/26/2005 10:50:00 PM

Today, Google launched its first ever streaming prime-time TV show. So it's as good a time as any to post a "clip show" of buygoogle's posts on "Google TV."

April 21 - In a little-noticed statement Larry Page said, "What we've done for the Web, Google will do for television."
April 23 - Google TV - the original post on the tectonic shift this could represent if Page was really serious.
April 25 - Hear a podcast of Page's barely audible statement on Google TV - but you'll have to listen to the entire analyst call to find it.
May 4 - Could the Google Web Accelerator have something to do with Google TV?
May 12 - All information, universally accessible, on every device - including the TV?
May 14 - Could the Google Web Accelerator can enable thin clients - like TVs and handhelds?
May 16 - "Internetworks" and Google TV.
May 20 - GWA + video search + video uploads + Google Current + TiVo talks + CPM brand advertising = Google TV
May 25 - Google introduces display advertising - a prereq for Google TV.
June 1 - Microsoft has mucked up IPTV pretty bad, since their stuff doesn't scale.
June 25 - How much information is there to make universally accessible? Counting TV, a LOT!
June 27 - Google releases inline streaming video - real moving pictures for the first time! Google is now hosting video content, by the way.
June 30 - The Wall Street Journal tears up Google's ham-handed forays into the alien world of TV.
July 27 - The Google Web Accelerator has been left for dead, but I see signs of life - it will rise again.
Aug 11 - Google's stock is beaten down, and there's lots of negative press - but remember Google TV!
Sept 19 - Prepare for the Googlequake -- GoogleNet and Google TV.
Sept 23 - Google briefly posts a job description for Google TV Product Manager, then takes it down.

One streaming TV show does not make Google TV a reality. But can you feel the ground shaking?

This is not passive TV pushed to couch potatoes with mass market advertising. This is active TV that is pulled by the user, according to the user's schedule and with no channels or network executive telling you what you can watch and when.

Stay tuned ...

Google as Telecom Game Changer - 9/25/2005 10:29:37 AM

Barrons has a couple charts (sub req'd) on "Business Models for VoIP."

The first chart shows the existing environment - VoIP providers like Vonage and Skype starting to challenge the entrenched PSTN players. There's no clear winner here, as Vonage gets strangled by regulation, and Skype's free calling has a "questionable" business model. Google is in the third category (with all the usual suspects), making the biggest threat to the dinosaur telecoms. Familiar themes to buygoogle readers include rapid innovation and a strong revenue model.

Type	Example	Model	Prospects
PSTN VoIP	Vonage	Direct competitor to local telcos, using software, no network ownership.	Low-priced, pure voice model faces trouble, with new regulatory costs, cable entry, wireless migration, bundles.
P-to-P Voice	Classic Skype	Peer-to-Peer community offers free voice alternative to time- and distance-based carriers.	Revenue model questionable, particularly as it starts to allow PSTN connections, which could subject it to regulation.
P-to-P Communications	Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, eBay, Skype, AOL	Builds communications suites for a variety of Web-based activities.	Builds on existing communities, revenue models fast innovation cycles. If, when, they become interoperable, creates bigger threat to incumbents.

But for me, the most interesting chart is that of the "Game Changers." Busting the strangle hold of the current telecom and cable gatekeepers over network connectivity to the consumer would change the game. Google appears to be making a play in both areas, through the rumored GoogleNet or free nationwide wi-fi, plus the promised server-to-server integration and interoperability of Google Talk with other services.

Event	What Happens	Impact
Emergence of Third Mass-Market Broadband Pipe	One of various developing options (Broadband over Powerline, Clearwire, Sprint 2.5 GHz, Municipal WiFi, WiMax) becomes commercially available.	Negative for telcos, cable and other alternatives. Positive for equipment makers and Web-based service providers.
Interoperability of Web-Based Communications Suites	Key providers of Peer-to-Peer voice services, or subset, agree to ensure cross-community communications.	Mixed to positive for participating Web players; negative for telcos, cable.

Sources: Barron's; Legg Mason Telecom; Media Regulatory Research

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